r/Superstonk
💎🙌Superstonk🚀🦍
r/Superstonk
$GME Daily Directory | New? Start Here! | Discussion, DRS Guide, DD Library, Monthly Forum, and FAQs
My last post felt rushed and incomplete, I didn't go through all the data available and also the 5% cut off point felt very arbitrary and that's because it was... so I decided to do the Complete version of this DD.
I grabbed a free trial on Chart Exchange and downloaded all the Exchange Volume data available and went through it all (For those of you who want to do that yourselves you can do so at this link).
For those that didn't see my last post: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1hvasxq/significance_of_chicago_exchange/
I want to thank Richard Newton for the inspiration for these posts and for making his amazing sheet available to everyone, it helped a lot when dissecting this data. All the numbers I mention here are post-split adjusted. All the days mentioned are trading days.
Chart Exchange data goes back to 2.1.2019. so that's all I had to work with, let me show you the data first and then lets go through some interesting points.
Events 24-14Events 13-6Events 5-11. The data set has 1515 days, average % of day's volume on CHX in this time period is 0.32%, using this I decided to go for a less arbitrary cut off point of 0.9%, originally I went for 1% but there were some interesting days from 0.9-1% so I decided to add those in. We can consider this to be above average for the exchange. This cut off point is still arbitrary, but less so than my previous one of 5%.
2. There were only 70 trading days in the last 6 years where average % of day's volume on CHX was above 1%, and only 79 trading days where it was above 0.9%.
I have no financial background and am completely incapable of providing any financial advice.
TL;DR: Hedge funds & institutions could be trapped (boxed in) by massive hidden short positions using swaps like Equity Total Return Swaps (ETRS). DFV's dog stock play, Credit Suisse's ties to Archegos, synthetic shares, and Brazil's 2024 tax reforms are all interconnected. These reforms could expose offshore structures, forcing liquidations. As hedging tools dwindle and quarterly volatility cycles intensify, the financial system faces an imminent unraveling, with GME and other meme stocks at the epicenter. Hold on for dear life, this house of cards might collapse soon.
the domino effectStrap on yer hats. We’re about to connect some dots that could blow this entire situation wide open. It’s a web of synthetic shorts, hidden positions, and a financial system stretched to its limits. From DFV's 9M share dog stock purchase and strategic exit, to Credit Suisse’s ties to Archegos and Brazilian tax reforms, all signs point to the same thing: a massive unraveling of a rigged system. Here’s how it all ties together.
1. The Synthetic Short Web: GME and Beyond
At the heart of this theory is "The Theory of Everything". This is legendary DD from 3 years ago. If you haven't read it and come back to this post.
Equity Total Return Swap (ETRS) are financial instruments that allow hedge funds to take massive short positions without directly shorting a stock, thus hiding their exposure from public reporting. They rely on counterparties (like market makers and banks) to hold the actual short positions on their balance sheets, avoiding detection. This creates synthetic shares and unreported short interest, artificially suppressing prices while keeping hedge funds technically "off the hook."
Evidence of ETRS: Persistent discrepancies between trading volume and float for GME and other basket stocks.
Impact: Institutions are boxed into untenable positions. If the underlying stocks’ prices rise, they face spiraling losses.
Resource: Deep dive into ETRS mechanics
2. dog stock & DFV's Role
DFV's 9M share purchase of dog stock was likely part of a portfolio swap of basket stocks shorted together. By publicly investing in dog stock, DFV potentially:
Exposed short positions tied to synthetic structures.
Drew retail and institutional attention to dog stock, driving up prices and forcing hedges.
Complicated hedge fund strategies reliant on correlated price suppression across basket stocks.
DFV's eventual exit? A calculated move to focus on GME, where the short squeeze potential is even greater.
3. Credit Suisse, Archegos, and the Brazilian Connection
The heart of this theory comes from the OG anon ASBT. Take a moment to read the 2021 Brazillian credit suisse GME puts DD before continuing.
Credit Suisse’s collapse following Archegos’ implosion exposed the dangerous reliance on swaps and synthetic positions. But there’s more:
Credit Suisse’s use of Brazilian derivatives platforms for swaps tied to basket stocks like GME.
Archegos’ swaps included Brazil-specific clauses, shifting liability to counterparty firms and obscuring positions.
Since this Brazilian Credit Suisse DD, there has been a SIGNIFICANT recent development.
Brazil’s new tax reforms, effective January 1, 2024, aim to increase transparency around offshore investments and closed-end funds. These could force disclosures of hidden positions or unwinding of risky bets.
Resource: Law Amends Tax Rules on Investments Abroad and Exclusive Funds in Brazil
holy f*ck
Shorts are trapped. Boxed-in, wrapped up, with a bow on top4. The "Boxed-In" Effect: Why They Can’t Escape
The system is designed to obscure risk, but it’s not without vulnerabilities. Here’s why the unraveling seems imminent:
Tax Reforms: Brazil’s new laws could expose offshore synthetic structures, forcing liquidations.
Quarterly Futures Roll Dates: Hedge funds lose hedging protection during roll periods, requiring them to buy underlying assets to stay delta neutral.
Decreasing Hedging Tools: Deep out-of-the-money puts (DOOMPs), once used to hedge swaps, are declining in volume, increasing volatility.
Market Sentiment: Rising prices in GME and dog stock signal the system is under stress. Each price spike boxes institutions further into a corner.
5. The Bigger Picture: Systemic Collapse?
The pieces fit together: synthetic shorting via swaps, market manipulation, and hidden liabilities. The interconnected nature of these instruments has created a massive, fragile system. As regulatory pressure mounts (e.g., Brazil’s reforms) and retail investors hold strong, institutions are running out of tools to suppress these stocks.
If this system unravels, it could trigger:
Forced buy-ins of short positions, driving prices sky-high.
Liquidity crises for hedge funds, market makers, and banks.
A broader market contagion, akin to 2008 but centered around derivatives and synthetic assets.
Conclusion: Cracks in the System
From DFV's strategic moves, to Brazilian tax reforms and Credit Suisse’s implosion, the house of cards built on synthetic shorts and swaps is wobbling. Hold tight, keep digging, and remember—
https://i.redd.it/4ll527be3vbe1.pngLet’s go out with a bang.
***DISCLAIMER*** - Please fact check everything in this post. There are no certainties. Question it, challenge it, do your own research & let's continuing evolving DD together.
We are stronger together.
Bonus: How I got here.
Had a conversation with ASBT
Randomly made this connection:
3) Tried finding the 😵💫 emoji in the timeline, found some post responding to "The Theory of Everything" that used the 😵💫 emoji, noticed "The Theory of Everything" post had a dog emoji,
All connections I made were based on those three events. Which is good & bad. It's Magnifishit. Do with that what you will. Cheers!🍻
Edit: fixed the 9m share purchase of dog stock typo
Hi everyone, Bob here.
I noticed some DDs floating around here lately discussing the Significance of Chicago Exchange. It piqued my interest so i dug in and am humbly posting my results of my deep dive into this dataset for your viewing pleasure. I'd ping the OG author on it so we can discuss our findings here to find a deeper more sexual meaning, but alas, the gods of reddit have spoken: on this sub, thou shalt not use core reddit features such as tagging or cross posting or even linking to other subs....🙄
As you can clearly see in the image above, there's a lot going on with CHeX mix. So lets dive in....If you're reading this and have been around this sub a while, you might recognize me. If you don't Just know this: I've been around since before this sub was a sub and was part of a couple great migrations, and have written lots of DD and collab DD years and years ago with DD authors that aren't around anymore for various reasons.
Why is my history relevant here?
Knowing where i come from and my background is important for what I'm about to share with you. Because you have to know that it's coming from a place that most of my recent DD has come from: protecting apes from misinformation, or at least, misunderstood information.
I wanted to find the time to do a proper analysis on this dataset going back to 2019. I'll share the core dataset here in case anyone wants to do a follow-up dig. Please pick my work apart btw, I'm looking to foster learning and growth of understanding in our markets than anything else.
I took the dataset provided by the OP, and adjusted it into its final form here: google sheets link on my old data repo | full data repo (not regularly updated) | I keep stocklayers.com updated daily though and take requests for data i have but dont post there (dm me)....
Then I ran pearson r statistical analysis on it. Why? Because observational correlations can easily be subject to confirmation bias - especially in this community (I'm guilty of this in the past as well). We're all looking for SOMETHING, ANYTHING to point to as an ah-ha! this is THE answer.... its usually not, and if THAT ANSWER gets enough visibility behind it and the apes start believing it, that's when bad shit happens to apes. Look at the CBOE roll theory in November... (2021, 2022?) fuck i can't remember off the top of my head. But that shit was brutal and lots of apes (myself included) lost tens of thousands of dollars due to bad actors taking advantage of "i feel it in my plumbs because this DD someone (well intentioned) wrote makes sense to me".
https://i.redd.it/fourwgv6pwbe1.pngThe market is dynamic, it's ever changing, there's tons of moving parts, and there's fuckery and crime everywhere too. It
, and the movement of GME cannot be boiled down to understanding just one thing..... Think of it as a puzzle room in a video game, You pull one lever, it does something, and another lever does another thing. You have to get all the levers in the right sequence and timing for things to open up and for you to find your way to the next level.
Think about that when the next DD comes out and is sensationalized by this community... think about who is watching (everyone) and what they might do about it, and who might be able to take action on things we are talking about here.
To close this rant off and get to the data, I believe that we are witnessing manipulation of Implied Volatilities to fuck with deltas of the options on the chain to maintain some semblance of hedging risk. The CHX volume may or may not be a part of this situation with the options chain and IV, but it does have a role to play in the larger puzzle that is the market makers and GME... What, is to be analyzed and discovered... For that, I like to take an objective approach.
We are looking for statistically significant correlation between higher than normal volume on CHX (relative to total Volume) and price improvement and/or volatility.
Summary of methodology:
High CHX Volume:
Identified using a Z-score (for abnormal volume compared to mean) and/or a percentage of total volume (if the CHX volume exceeds a specific percentage threshold).
Price Change:
Calculated as the difference between the closing price on the current day and the closing price after 3, 5, or 14 days.
Volatility:
Calculated as the difference between the highest price and the lowest price over the 3, 5, or 14-day periods following the current day.
This methodology provides a detailed analysis of both price movement and volatility after days with high CHX volume and compares them to the overall historical stock behavior.
Not only was there not a statistically significant correlation found between high CHX volume days and the stock performance in days to come, there was actually a lesser observed statistical range in both price performance and volatliity as seen below.
Price Variation
All dataZoomed in, same chart as above - Price variationVolatility
All data (red) volatility following CHX high volume days (blueish)same chart as above, enhanced.If i only include those days where CHX volume is greater than or equal to 2 standard deviations as in the referenced DD...
https://i.redd.it/nkh5f1e56xbe1.pngPrice Variation:
https://i.redd.it/j5a6enr6rwbe1.pngVolatility:
https://i.redd.it/8ayt3lt8rwbe1.pngFiltering data for starting after may 2020
Price
https://i.redd.it/hah3io00swbe1.pngVolatility
https://i.redd.it/yc7slv54swbe1.pngFirst and foremost, I'm not the smartest person with most things so I welcome and encourage others to pick this and all my DD out there apart. if i got something wrong, let me know and we will discover the truth together.
The correlations being drawn, and the speed at which it has gained popularity on this sub is what led me down this rabbit hole. I wanted to understand it, and was frankly suspicious of the air of certainty it has created about what is to come. Don't get me wrong, i'm bullish as fuck (i just sold another 100k of CSPs at 31.5 this week because I believe its just up from here and want to take more of Kenny's money to buy more GME with) but i do approach everything like this with some caution and a healthy dose of skepticism. I've been digging into this shit for almost 5 fucking years now and its NEVER been the case that there was ONE THING to watch and it would tell you when GME is going to pop. Its not that simple, never was.
The raw data file for the dig and the outputs from the pearson methodology can be found here: (google drive link)
Disclaimer:
I'm just someone sharing my .02. see a financial advisor if thats your thing, or don't... educate yourself!
Edit: Updated to show just the events for standard deviations as well, for a full comparison. Results remain the same. though you do get better results (though not statistically relevant) if you crop data starting June 2020
In the image above, I have a row for every instance we had more than 5% of the trading volume come from the Chicago Exchange. All events resulted in a significant price increase 20 trading days later, but more importantly, you'll notice a massive 40% spike 3-4 days later in 3 out of the 5 of the instances.
That would mean we have pretty good odds at a 40% jump in price by January 10th or January 13th. That would bring us right up to $45.
TLDR: 60% of the time, it works every time.
And now I wonder if those "January is June" tinfoil guys might be onto something cuz that would maybe give this June 11th tweet some extra meaning after seeing RC's 13D:
https://i.redd.it/cx8prxzf0obe1.pngIf you look at his other June tweets after the green uno reverse on June 2nd a case could be made for all of those as well:
June 9th: Joker in Chicago with a kitty mask. How is CHX looking this week?
https://i.redd.it/9jh3m1o48ube1.pngJune 10th: You WERE a billionaire - maybe he is again?
https://i.redd.it/a9ljjry28ube1.pngJune 11th : Michael Scott above and Options Basics 101 cuz any exercised options on 1/10 would need to be delivered t+1 the following Monday. That banana sure looks scared.
https://i.redd.it/4iy34ym98ube1.pngJune 12th: I'd probably wanna gloat a little too
https://i.redd.it/8u1ctkap8ube1.pngJune 13th: Dune Sandworm, not a bad metaphor for a gamma squeeze
https://i.redd.it/reoo9kcc8ube1.pngJune 17th: Bruno staring forward from a green glow looking concerned (anyone seen that OI on the options chain for 1/17? It's enough to make Kenny puke up some mayo for sure. That's a lot of shares that would have to be delivered that don't actually exist....)
https://i.redd.it/r9v4az9e8ube1.pngI can't make sense of McEnroe except it came after the shareholders meeting and he appears with the headband. Then blue dog stock shows up. Could be a reach to say this is him turning from RK back to DFV as he's beginning to take other positions. (We all know it was the shuffle, he never left)
But what hints did he give us for to even swap June for January (flip mode) because they're Seven ("what's in the box?") months apart? Who the fuck knows. Sure a fun week tho.
Do I think this is it? Absolutely not, we've been correct absolutely zero times. Way too much nuance behind the scenes and I'm sure it's 100x more complicated and involves a combo of FTD's, swaps, margin calls, etc. But man is tinfoil fun, been a great year with you guys and looking forward to 2025.
Happy Juneuary everybody!
About Community
Related Communities
104,010 members
225,854 members
42,764 members
1,325,518 members
20,010 members
8,124 members
53,571 members
3,396,699 members
125,244 members
r/Superstonk Rules
Sort by Post Flair
- 📚 Due Diligence
- 📚 Possible DD
- 💡 Education
- 🗣 Discussion / Question
- 🤔 Speculation / Opinion
- 💻 Computershare
- Data
- Macroeconomics
- 📰 News
- 📈 Technical Analysis
- 🧱 Market Reform
- Gamestop Marketplace
- Marketplace Creator
- ✨NFT Giveaway✨
- Bought at GameStop
- 🎅🏼🎄 Very GMErry Holidays ❄ ⛄
- 📳Social Media
- 🤡 Meme
- ☁ Hype/ Fluff
- 📣 Community Post
- 🏆 AMA
- 👽 Shitpost
- 📉 FTX 📉
- 🔔 Inconclusive
- 🥴 Misleading Title
- 📖 Partial Debunk
- 🚨 Debunked
- 💡DD Spotlight & AMA 💡
How to Hide Post Flairs
In the search bar use:
-flair_text:"💻 Computershare" or any other post flair title.
Hide CS posts on mobile and Old Reddit
Hide CS posts for desktop users on New Reddit
For iOS use this in the search bar:
-flair_text:"💻 Computershare"
For more tips and tricks on how to filter post flairs or search for posts on Superstonk go here.
Contacting the Moderators
Readers may notify moderators of posts and comments that fail to meet the community standards, by clicking on the associated "report" button.
If you need to contact the mods please send a message here.