What Does an Evaluation License? A Commit-Bound Census of Claim-Relative Inference in Inspect Evals
Abstract
Evaluation artifacts specify a forward computation: a task, scorer, and reported metric. They do not necessarily license the claim attached to that metric because the historical evidence and alternative semantics needed to replay it may be unbound. We formalize this missing claim-replay layer through a frozen substrate D, a grounded family F, a claim query q, and the resulting identified set. We then census all 124 mechanically eligible Inspect Evals units at a pinned commit. Every unit receives a terminal disposition; 110 stop before deterministic inference because required historical evidence or semantic grounding is unavailable. Where execution closes, exact values, winners, complete orders, and pairwise relations separate by claim resolution and by primary versus review family. The audit therefore returns typed stops, instability witnesses, and stable substructure rather than forcing one evaluator meaning or one robust/not-robust label.
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What does a benchmark result actually let us conclude?
In a commit-bound census of 124 Inspect Evals units, 110 historical claims stop at explicit evidence or semantic gates. Among the executable cases, exact values, winners, complete rankings, and pairwise relations do not always have the same identified set.
We make that claim-to-evidence layer executable and fail-closed.
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