DanMcInerney/mma-ai

MMA AI Dataset Artifacts

This dataset contains the database dumps and runtime artifacts needed to reproduce the mma-ai workflow.

The current release was refreshed on 2026-08-16 from PostgreSQL 18.1 and uses the accepted recency-weighted v8 hybrid model. Exact sizes, hashes, database metadata, model lineage, and evaluation boundaries are in manifest.json.

Contents

• dumps/mma-ai.postgres-custom — custom-format PostgreSQL dump containing the main features schema used by DATABASE_URL.
• dumps/odds.postgres-custom — custom-format PostgreSQL dump containing bestfightodds.bfo, used by ODDS_DATABASE_URL.
• processed/training_data.csv — generated win-model training data.
• processed/training_data_dec.csv — generated decision-model training data.
• processed/prediction_data.csv — generated prediction feature data.
• models/ag-20260815_090928-win-hybrid.tar.gz — accepted AutoGluon weighted-v8 hybrid win model.
• manifest.json — authoritative sizes, SHA-256 hashes, database metadata, and source/model lineage.

The dumps use PostgreSQL custom archive format with gzip compression.

Model evaluation boundary

The published model uses 40 v8 features, recency weighting, a chronological split, and the hybrid candidate set. Its saved non-FULL ensemble is 1.0 * Mitra; the archive contains 22 AutoGluon model nodes including FULL variants.

On its exposed 460-fight chronological tuning partition it scored 309/460 (67.17% accuracy, 0.61319 log loss). This is a selection-biased tuning result, not an untouched holdout. The separately replayed, event-grouped chronological development estimate across 2022–2025 was 726/1,108 (65.52% accuracy, 0.61960 log loss). See the companion repository's research/2026-08-16-top10-mma-experiments/ evidence for the full provenance.

Restore databases

Create local databases:

createdb -U postgres mma-ai
createdb -U postgres odds

Restore the dumps using the host/port for your own PostgreSQL service:

pg_restore --clean --if-exists --no-owner --jobs 4 \
  --dbname "postgresql://postgres@localhost:5432/mma-ai" \
  dumps/mma-ai.postgres-custom

pg_restore --clean --if-exists --no-owner --jobs 4 \
  --dbname "postgresql://postgres@localhost:5432/odds" \
  dumps/odds.postgres-custom

Use the pretrained model

Extract the model into the code repository:

mkdir -p AutogluonModels
tar -xzf models/ag-20260815_090928-win-hybrid.tar.gz -C AutogluonModels
mkdir -p data
cp processed/training_data.csv data/training_data.csv
cp processed/prediction_data.csv data/prediction_data.csv

Then run:

uv run python predict.py \
  --model-path AutogluonModels/ag-20260815_090928-win-hybrid \
  --prediction-data-csv data/prediction_data.csv \
  --training-data-csv data/training_data.csv \
  --no-shap

Rebuild and retrain instead

After restoring both databases, rebuild the generated data and train with the companion repository's versioned profiles. The processed CSVs are included so users can skip that rebuild for the common prediction workflow.